We have wrote a fair amount about plug in solar and balcony solar in the past, the issue with the UK system is that we are behind the times, but also the regulations would put a stop to most systems for a DIY installation or something that you could pick up and plug in to reduce your bill and save the planet… ( if you dont want to read me poking fun at the lies of government, scroll to reality check)
CO2 The red herring.
Humans account for 0.000044% of all the carbon in the environment and we are taxed for this ‘global disaster’ and have a net zero policy sweeping the globe to lower the 0.04% of carbon that’s in our atmosphere.
A drastic reduction in Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration from 0.04% (currently around 420 parts per million or ppm) to 0.02% (200 ppm) would have profound and generally cooling effects on global temperatures. This represents a halving of CO2 levels, bringing them back to concentrations seen during ice ages.
Here’s a breakdown of what would likely happen over a 10-year period:
- Immediate Cooling Trend: CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas, trapping heat in the atmosphere. A sudden halving of its concentration would significantly reduce this heat-trapping effect. The Earth would immediately begin to radiate more heat back into space, leading to a rapid onset of a cooling trend.
- Significant Temperature Drop (Over 10 years):
- Climate Sensitivity: Scientists use “climate sensitivity” to describe how much the Earth’s temperature changes in response to changes in CO2. While the full “equilibrium climate sensitivity” (long-term response) can take centuries to manifest, there’s also a “transient climate response” (TCR) which describes the warming experienced during the period of CO2 change.
- Past Climate Records: Paleoclimate data consistently show a strong correlation between CO2 levels and global temperatures. During past ice ages, when CO2 levels were significantly lower (around 180-200 ppm), global temperatures were several degrees Celsius colder than pre-industrial levels.
- Proportionality: Some research indicates that every 10 ppm increase in CO2 concentration leads to an approximate 0.1 °C increase in global mean temperature. Conversely, a reduction of 200 ppm (from 400 to 200 ppm) could theoretically lead to a temperature drop of around 2°C (200 ppm / 10 ppm * 0.1°C). While this is a simplification and the relationship is more logarithmic for radiative forcing, it gives a sense of scale.
- Ocean Lag: The ocean has a large heat capacity and responds more slowly to changes in atmospheric CO2. This means that while some cooling would be rapid (days to weeks for the atmosphere), the full extent of the cooling, particularly for the deep ocean, would take decades to centuries. However, within a 10-year period, a discernible and substantial cooling would occur as the upper layers of the ocean and the land surface adjust. Studies suggest that the maximum warming/cooling from a pulse of CO2 occurs around a decade after the emission/removal.
- Potential for Rapid Climate Shifts:
- Feedback Loops: A significant cooling could trigger positive feedback loops, such as increased ice and snow cover, which would reflect more sunlight and further amplify the cooling.
- Disruption to Ecosystems: Such a rapid and large drop in temperature would be highly disruptive to ecosystems globally. Plants and animals adapted to warmer conditions would struggle to cope with the sudden shift.
- Agricultural Impact: Colder temperatures, shorter growing seasons, and potential shifts in precipitation patterns would severely impact agriculture and food security.
- Return Towards Glacial Conditions: While a full-blown ice age wouldn’t occur in 10 years, this level of CO2 reduction would push the Earth significantly towards glacial conditions, with potentially profound consequences for sea levels (eventual lowering due to ice sheet expansion, though not significantly within 10 years) and global weather patterns.
In summary, a reduction of Earth’s atmospheric carbon from 0.04% to 0.02% over a 10-year period would lead to a significant and rapid decrease in global temperatures, likely several degrees Celsius, pushing the climate towards conditions last seen during ice ages. This would have extremely disruptive and potentially catastrophic impacts on natural systems and human civilization.
The human impact of Co2 if we removed all of the CO2 by humans this specific reduction would have no discernible or measurable effect on global temperatures over a 10-year period. The Earth’s climate system is too vast and complex, and natural climate variability, as well as the continuing influence of other greenhouse gas emissions, would far outweigh any impact from such a minuscule CO2 decrease.
The top Global warming gases
Water Vapor (H2O): This is the most abundant greenhouse gas and the strongest overall contributor to the natural greenhouse effect. However, its concentration in the atmosphere is primarily controlled by temperature (warmer air holds more water vapor). While human activities don’t directly control atmospheric water vapor levels, increased temperatures due to other greenhouse gases lead to more water vapor, creating a powerful positive feedback loop.
Carbon Dioxide (CO2): This is the most significant greenhouse gas directly influenced by human activities and the largest contributor to current global warming. It is released primarily through:
- Burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) for electricity, transportation, industry, and heating.
- Deforestation and land-use changes.
- Cement production. CO2 is a long-lived gas, meaning it can remain in the atmosphere for centuries to thousands of years.
While their concentrations are much lower than CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide, their extremely high global warming potentials mean they can contribute significantly to warming.
Reality check
If you read that “green talk” you may be confused as you realise that the “climate change” is not what they claimed, zero carbon emissions will do nothing, its great money maker for the governments pockets and in actual fact is a normal cycle of the earth which has been doing the cycle for longer than you have been around. and this factual data is “out there” and not hard to find.
So going green in our reality is more like excess taxation needs a bit of a clean up, by making your own power you will pay less taxes by not paying the company that bills you while you have your own power.
If balcony solar does take off and plug in solar are allowed, then we could be in for a fast uptake. What you may like, is that we have some of the best systems which will make a hybrid system. Yes a grid tied hybrid balcony solar system with a battery.
You are advising you not to jump on amazon, wish, temu and ebay buying “plug in solar” as most are illegal and dangerous. You will want brand names like Deye/Sunsynk, Hoymiles, Qphaze, Nef to name most of the worthy system that you can use, some having some benefits over the other.
Don’t hold out, as the government could take years to make this happen as they have to change a wide number of code/regs to make it work and get installers up to speed. Its not that they are changing much, but we know that a long time ago, and as we have wrote, you can wire dual sources. but you have to consider the safety of installing or allowing a plug in system.
It is highly likely that the plug in side of plug in solar will be a different type of plug that the 3 pin we all know.
As you may notice we sell as gen port. this is a “proper” way to plug in solar, I am undecided if this may be just an option which is replacing the normal socket, or a new circuit leading back to the main grid connection where it comes into the property.
IF the government mandates a “specific plug installation” it is likely to reduce solar installation costs, as wiring the plug would be much lower than the full solar installation. It is likely to be this route as its a economic boost.
The plus side to this is that a correctly installed plug could open up more homes for solar upgrades and larger systems. It would also open up DIY solar installations.
Value of Small solar and balcony solar
Small solar installations tend to be cost effective to a degree, if we use our test systems as a point of reference then it would be a annual value of around £292. This would give a hardware only cost and return in a little over 1 year, say 16 months.
The key to the uptake will be the plug installation, this I would imagine will be around £250 from most suppliers, therefore this would increase the return time to around 4 years. this is not idea and a simpler and most cost effective solution is required to make it work and appear better value as we can say the government is doubling the cost of solar installations.
On the other hand, a plug and play, could open up small solar installations and a general reduction to the cost of living and the inflated bills. but it does need to be a decent size to make a dent that you can see.
If we work on the seeable investment, then solar plug ins will need to provide about 1kw, but you will see a better value around 2.2kw, which is where we move from plug in and over to a normal solar installation.
with 800w your only going to see around a 30% reduction in the bill over all. but this depends on your use and loads. you may see less but I doubt you will see anything over 46%.
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